The knockout stages of Euro 2020(1) got underway today and the first two games featured Denmark vs. Wales in Amsterdam, followed by Italy vs. Austria at Wembley in London.
Denmark Brush Aside Wales
On paper this was an intriguing matchup. Neither side is a traditional “powerhouse” in terms of population or tradition of winning big trophies, but I figured that meant the match would be fairly open and both teams would really go for it. Wales have two and half superstars in Gareth Bale, Aaron Ramsey, and Manchester United’s own Daniel James. Denmark don’t really have much in terms of star players but a look at the team sheet shows a team that is perhaps more talented collectively. They have several good to very good players, while the Welsh are decidedly average outside of the aforementioned superstars.
One factor in play here today that is not normally as influential was the emotional component. Major tournaments are always emotionally draining at the knockout stage, but Denmark have the “advantage” of playing for their stricken teammate Christian Eriksen. He was released from the hospital in Copenhagen a few days ago but there’s no indication of when (or if) he will play again. The rest of the team have been galvanized by the adversity and today showed a unity that is rare to find among national sides that don’t spend a lot of time playing together. Every neutral was a fan of Denmark today.
And indeed it was Denmark that were the better side throughout this match. Wales had a good spell in the first 10 minutes or so of each half, but for the other 70 minutes it was all Denmark. They were better in possession, better in attack, and better on defense. The scoring was opened via a fine strike from Kasper Dolberg from about 19 yards out midway through the first half. It was only 1-0 at halftime though and you knew that Wales had a chance because of players like Bale and Ramsey. Those two only need one moment of magic, one chance, to find an equalizer.
However, the Danish defense and midfield were excellent at marking those two and keeping them from getting involved. Bale is most effective when he can receive the ball in space and use his dribbling to create openings, but that simply didn’t happen today. When not in possession, Wales looked rather uncreative and lacked ideas on how to beat the Danes. I don’t think I even heard the commentators say the names “Bale” or “Ramsey” for large portions of the match.
Some very poor defending lead to a second Danish goal and a second for Dolberg. A cross was played in from the Danish right side, and Welsh substitute defender Neco Williams panicking a little and heading the ball back across the face of his own goal. The ball fell to Dolberg and he slotted home for a second after he dug the ball out of his feet. Good play for the Danish for the first one, but bad play by Wales for the second. At 2-0 you felt it was mostly over, and despite a Welsh push later in the half the only result was a 3rd goal for Denmark, this time scored by Joakim Maehle. At 3-0 it was well and truly over, but that did not dissuade the Danish and they went and got a 4th via Martin Braithwaite in stoppage time. Braithwaite was offside for me but in this situation it doesn’t really matter. There was also a Welsh player sent off, but again it matters little in terms of the result.
Wales did well to get out of their group but they were definitely second best today. They can perhaps feel hard done by due to some questionable refereeing decisions, but you can’t blame the ref for a team not creating chances. They need help in the center of the park in terms of providing service in to Bale and Ramsey that simply wasn’t there today. Credit to the Danes for being organized and playing for a bigger purpose simply than just winning matches. I didn’t think the Danes would make it this far without Eriksen (their best player), but they have more than made up for his absence with the victories over Russia in the group stage and this victory in the Round of 16.
The Danes may just end up being the “Cinderella” team of this tournament. They play the winner of Netherlands and Czech Republic in the quarterfinals.
Italy Squeaks By Austria
Italy have been the best team at the tournament so far, winning all their group matches by multiple goals while simultaneously not conceding any. They love attacking down their left side when going forward, and are anchored by two excellent center backs in defense, Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini. Both of them are very old, but despite their collective age of 70+ they are incredibly tough to break down. While this Italian team lacks a lot of the superstars of old, they make up for it with tactics. They are managed by former Manchester City manager Roberto Mancini, and indeed he has them playing very much like a Premier League side and not like the Italian sides of old. The Italians traditionally won with patient build-up play and possession, but this Italian team succeeds with aggressive pressing and winning the ball back as soon as it is lost. They had not really played against opposition with real quality until today though.
Austria are always somewhat of a wild card at these tournaments. Before Euro 2016, many fans and pundits had them as a dark horse candidate to win the tournament, but they crashed out at the group stage. This time around no one is expecting a lot from them, but they’ve gone and done better than they did five years ago by reaching the Euro knockouts for the first time in their history. They have superstars of their own in utility-man David Alaba and forward Marko Arnautovic, but there are question marks about the midfield for them. A lot of the creative duties tend to fall on Alaba when he isn’t in defense, and they don’t have many more creative players like him. Where to play Alaba has been a big headache for Austrian manager Franco Foda. Alaba can play almost anywhere on the pitch, but there is only one of him at the end of the day and he can’t be everywhere at once no matter how hard he tries.
As expected, Italy dominated the first 45 minutes and clearly looked like the side that was going to score. Austria defended just well enough though and kept Italy out. The Azzuri’s best chance was a quality Ciro Immobile strike from distance that hit the post. Austria didn’t create much for themselves either, but keeping Italy from scoring has proven to be difficult to do this tournament so credit to them for doing so. The second half was much different as Italy did not really create much going forward, despite having a lot of possession in Austria’s half of the pitch. It then became Austria who were asking more questions of the previously impervious Italian defense, and they definitely caused some problems for Italy with their physical play.
Arnautovic had the ball in the back of the net on 66 minutes after a counter attack and a find headed pass from Alaba, but the Austrian celebrations were cut short due to the offside flag. VAR did a check however and it did appear that Arnautovic was maybe a foot ahead of the last Italian defender just before he nodded past Italian keeper Gianluigi Donnarumma. Italy were saved by the linesman but should have took that passage of play as a warning shot. For the rest of normal time however, they did not. It ended 0-0 after 90 minutes which meant that another 30 minutes of additional time would need to be played.
Mancini made some key substitutions just before the additional time started, bringing on Federico Chiesa and Matteo Pessina. Italy has a strong bench and he knew some kind of change was needed in order to jump start his lethargic team. Chiesa rewarded him 5 minutes later by scoring the first goal of the match from a tight angle. A cross came in from left back (and probably Man of the Match) Leonardo Spinazzola that found Chiesa in space on the right hand side, and after some good control in the box he lashed home past the Austrian keeper. Pessina got Italy’s 2nd about 10 minutes later. A cross once again came in from the left hand side and Austria failed to clear it. The ball was knocked into the path of Pessina by Italian defender Francesco Acerbi, and Pessina did well to finish from the left side. At 2-0 with only 15 minutes left in extra time, it seemed over.
Austria didn’t think it was over though, as they got a goal back from a corner six minutes before the end of the match. It was a poor goal to concede really and a bit of a clusterfuck defensively from the Italian point of view, but credit to Austrian forward Sasa Kalajdzic for sticking his head out there and getting contact. Corners usually don’t result in goals, but they can be vital for a team that doesn’t get the lion’s share of the possession. There was a tense finish to the match, but Austria never really created another solid opportunity and Italy saw the match out to the finish, winning 2-1. Austria’s goal was the first one conceded by Italy in over 12 matches.
Italy got the job done in the end, but they showed today that they are mortal. They can indeed be beaten, which didn’t seem likely before today. If you can defend from crosses and don’t mind playing a little bit on the back foot, you can frustrate them and eventually they’ll stop creating so many chances. You will need to score a goal of your own though. Austria found a formula to win today, and had they executed even slightly better Italy may have gone out.
Italy will play the winner of tomorrow’s mouth-watering Belgium vs. Portugal fixture in the quarterfinals. No matter which team they play, it will easily be their toughest test of the tournament. They should definitely still be considered among the favorites to win the whole thing, but some kinks in the armor were on display today.
Tomorrow
Netherlands vs. Czech Republic (9 am PDT)
Belgium vs. Portugal (Noon PDT)
4-4-2 