Two giants of European football will face off tomorrow at Wembley Stadium in London (noon PDT), and it truly is a marquee matchup between Italy and Spain. These two teams have played each other many times in this tournament, with the Italians being victorious in the Round of 16 at Euro 2016 and the Spanish prevailing in the final of Euro 2012. As alluded to, both these teams have won World Cups and both have won the Euros. Spain have three European titles (1964, 2008, 2012) while the Italians have only one (1968), but Italy has several more World Cups. No matter which you slice it, fans of both of these teams have high expectations whenever their national sides are on the pitch.
Italy
The Italians have probably been the best team at this tournament so far, dominating in the group stages and taking down a stubborn Austria side in the Round of 16. The victory over Belgium in the quarterfinals is what really sold me on this particular Italian team though. Yes they are talented, coached well, and did well against weaker opposition; but Belgium was the first real stiff test for them at this tournament and they did just enough to advance. That match was entertaining in the first half but dreadfully boring in the second, but I think that was done on purpose. The Italians had the lead, and they have a very stout defense anchored by long-tenured center backs Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini. What those two lack in athleticism they more than make up for in positioning, strength, and tactical nous. It is very difficult to get in behind them, as Belgium and other teams have found out. The structure of the team is built on the resilient back line, and so far it has worked for Italian manager Roberto Mancini.
When off the ball, the Italians are on the prowl like a pack of wild dogs. Their tactics are based on pressing high up the pitch to force the opposition into mistakes, and when they are on the ball and looking to score they run directly at defenses. Italy are traditionally a team that likes to create chances through slow build up play, but Mancini has thrown tradition out the window. These aggressive tactics can be risky, but it works when you have speedy players and a solid back line. They also have the depth of talent needed to keep using these tactics late into matches when the opposition is tiring. Mancini has however kept alive the tradition of Italian shithousery (diving, moaning for fouls, time wasting), and that makes them very effective at running out the clock. If Italy has a lead with 10 or so minutes left, look for them all to start falling over like they’ve been shot every time the other team’s players go near them. Not being cynical because it’s part of the sport and everyone is guilty of it to a degree, but that is what they will do if they’re trying to protect a lead.
Players to Watch: Bonucci, Chiellini, Lorenzo Insigne, Marco Veratti, Manuel Locatelli, Federico Chiesa, Ciro Immobile
Notably absent is left back Leonardo Spinazzola. He tore his ACL in the match against Belgium, and it’s a shame he can’t play anymore because he’s been absolutely electric down Italy’s left hand side. Pace, dribbling, crosses, it’s all been magic and his loss is a huge one.
Spain
Spain are a much more curious team. They’re certainly talented of course and have a manager in Luis Enrique who has won a ton of trophies at the club level, but they have been somewhat inconsistent this tournament. They struggled to two draws in their opening two group matches against Sweden and Slovakia, but then came alive and scored 10 goals in the next two games against Russia and Croatia. In their quarterfinal match with Switzerland though they were back to struggling in attack and needed penalties to finally put away the Swiss. The inconsistency of their form and whether or not they can create quality chances will be two large concerns for Spain. Which team is going to show up?
One positive for Spain is that they do not have to worry about the Italians putting 10 men behind the ball and parking the proverbial bus in front of their own net. Italy will come at them for large portions of the match, and that will inevitably leave gaps in midfield that Spain can potentially work the ball into with their passing game. Spain’s tactics are based entirely on short and medium passes that enable them to more easily retain possession. Possession of the ball is the foundation of their tactics, the logic being that the less the other team has the ball, the less likely they are to score. Spain do not take many chances with the ball when it comes to passing the ball forward, but they are very good at passing it around the edge of the box and trying to create gaps in defenses that way. It worked wonderfully well from 2008-2012 when Spain won 3 major trophies, but a lack of cutting edge at the center forward position in recent years has frequently been Spain’s undoing. After all, you don’t win a match by possessing the ball more. You win by scoring more, and when your strikers are in poor form, all the possession in the world doesn’t really matter.
This match will be won by whichever side wins the passing/pressing cat-and-mouse game. Will the Spanish be able to pass the ball around the press effectively, or will Italy be all over them and cause them to make mistakes? The Spanish have been prone to defensive breakdowns and mistakes this tournament, most notably against Croatia and Switzerland. They will need to be at their very best in order to beat Italy. Concentration will be vital. The mental aspect of the game is so important and never gets talked about, really. It doesn’t matter what your tactics are as a manager if your players lose concentration in key moments and fail to execute.
Players to watch: Ferran Torres, Gerard Moreno, Alvaro Morata, Koke, Jordi Alba, Pedri, Aymeric Laporte
Prediction
I think Italy has the edge in terms of depth. They win a closely contested match, 2-1.
4-4-2 