England. Wales. Iran. USA.
For the first time since 2010, England will play the Yanks in the group stage of a World Cup. I do think that England and the USA are probably the favorites in the group, as I already wrote in my Quick n’ Dirty World Cup picks post. However, let’s take a deeper dive into this group and figure out what’s going on. And remember – this tournament should not be happening in Qatar, and FIFA is the most corrupt organization on the planet.
USA
I normally let my Yank friends and colleagues discuss the USMNT (which of course stands for United States Mutant Ninja Turtles) for me as I don’t routinely follow them, but given that they are in England’s group this tournament I have been following them a little more closely. At World Cup 2010 in South Africa, the Americans drew with England 1-1 and then managed to later win the group! That would be a fantastic result for them again this time around, but this group is much different than the one in 2010.
This is the most talented USMNT I have seen assembled for a major tournament. They have some undeniably good players, mainly in attack. Giovanni Reyna, Joshua Sargent, and Tim Weah all play for big clubs across Europe, and Christian Pulisic is the most naturally-talented American player I have ever seen. Pulisic and Reyna also have Champions League experience, with Pulisic being the owner of a winners’ medal. I do not think the Americans will struggle to score goals, provided manager Greg Berhalter allows them to run at defenses.
Where the concerns come in are with the rest of the team. The midfield might be ok as long as Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams are able to find the attacking players with key passes. However, the defense looks extremely thin outside of Sergiño Dest. Most of the defenders in this team do not play in Europe, and I am concerned about them having to rely on the aging legs of DeAndre Yedlin at fullback. The goalkeepers, at least two of them, aren’t regular starters at their clubs and the current No. 1 Ethan Horvath plays in the second division in England. There just isn’t a ton of top-level experience in this side apart from the forwards and McKennie.
A further concern is the form of the Americans coming into this tournament. To say the least, it hasn’t been convincing. They failed to win their CONCACAF qualifying group, and in their recent friendlies against Japan and Saudi Arabia they failed to score a single goal. Most Americans will tell you that Berhalter is largely responsible for those failures. From my limited perspective, Berhalter needs to shape his tactics and team selection around scoring goals and defending from the front. I do not think the Americans are good enough in defense to hold out against quality opposition for 90 minutes. The best strategy for the USMNT is to get out on the front foot first though and make the opposition work. They must press high and win the ball in forward areas.
The team spirit of the Americans at these tournaments is usually very good. To quote famous match commentator Martin Tyler, “Americans always believe they can do it.” There is no more apt a quote. Americans always believe they can win games, even when all logic and reason says they won’t. Self-belief is ingrained in American culture, and while it has its downsides it certainly can be helpful in football.
Overall though I think this current crop of American talent needs four years to mature. This tournament might have come just a bit too soon. They are of course not the pushovers they were 20 years ago, but I still think there is a gap in quality between the Yanks and the elites of the world.
Wales
The Welsh have not been to a World Cup since 1958, but that long absence has made them very hungry for some success. They qualified via an emotional playoff against Ukraine in which the entire football world was rooting against them, so there are no questions as to their mental toughness. It’s true they are small in terms of population of geography, but the talent and experience in this Wales team makes me think they are one of the biggest sleepers going into this tournament.
They are of course led by talismanic forward Gareth Bale, who is the most talented player Wales has ever produced and he just won the MLS Cup with Los Angeles FC. He will lead the forward line, probably supported by Nottingham Forest forward Brennan Johnson and Fulham winger Daniel James. In midfield they have the aging but still reliable Aaron Ramsey, along with Joe Allen and Harry Wilson. There is also a lot of experience in defense via Neco Williams, Chris Gunter, and Ben Davies. Wayne Hennessey is also a massively experienced keeper and had a fantastic outing in the playoff against Ukraine. This is both the first and last World Cup for Bale and probably Ramsey as well, so they will be giving their all.
The big question for Wales is their depth. Aside from the starters I named and maybe one or two more players, the Welsh do not have the depth of some of the bigger teams. They will have to rely on their starters in order to do well at this tournament. That might work during the group stage to a degree, but I do not feel they have the depth for a long run. However, anyone who disregards the Welsh in this group will do so at their own peril. They have talent, experience, and are in good form coming into the tournament.
The Americans play Wales in their first group match on November 21st.
Iran
So as a non-Iranian its easy to not pay attention to this team and not take them seriously due to their lack of talent. And objectively, they are the least-talented team in this group. Most of their players play in the Iranian domestic league, although there are a few notable names who play in Greece, Turkey, and Croatia. Iran are probably strongest in attack similar to the Americans, with Karim Ansarifard, Mehdi Taremi, and Sardar Azmoun all looking to make a name for themselves at this tournament.
Also, when a team is lacking in talent, they can sometimes make up for it in tactical prowess and team spirit. There are many occasions both at the club and international level where a less-talented team has gotten a result against a better team simply because they had a better tactical plan. That will be Iran and manager Carlos Quieroz’s mantra going into this tournament. They’re not idiots, after all. They know they lack the talent that other teams in this group have. Still though, they are one of the best Asian teams in the world and have had a good run of form coming into this tournament. They won’t just roll over and concede that they’re just happy to be here.
Iran’s greatest strength however is not their talent, nor their coaching. Interestingly, it is the current political tension in their country and the team spirit that results from it. Many of these players support women’s rights in Iran and are critical of the current regime. They know that they are ambassadors for their culture and people, not necessarily their government. I think they will want to show the world what Iran is really about. The people of that nation are much more progressive than their government is generally speaking, and they have a chance to show support for the women of their country by playing well at this tournament. Ansarifard has already done a bit of that recently when he scored a goal for his club and then removed his team shirt to display a message of solidarity with women in Iran.
It would be beyond surprising for Iran to progress out of this group, but it is certainly not impossible. They are much more likely however to ruin another team’s chance of progression.
England
The Three Lions are my team of choice and I usually don’t like to make predictions about them due to superstition, but I can give some general previews about the expectations around this team. England fans expect this team to win the World Cup every time it comes around, no matter how delusional that may be. As has been said many times on this blog, England have only won the world Cup once, and it was a staggering 56 years ago.
But the past five years or so have provided some justification for those lofty expectations this time around. The past five years have been the most successful in England’s history, aside from 1966. In 2017 we reached the semifinals of the Nations League, in 2018 we reached the semifinals of the World Cup in Russia, and in 2021 we reached the final of the European Championships. No trophies were won at any of those tournaments sadly, but this is the most consistently good this team has been in my lifetime. Manager Gareth Southgate and this current generation of English talent are the primary reasons for this success.
There is no denying England’s star power in attack, and the defense should probably be pretty solid as well. The midfield is admittedly a little on the light side after the starters, but if England do poorly at this tournament a lack of talent will not be the reason why. With world-class players like Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka, Jude Bellingham, Luke Shaw, and many others all currently in the form they’re in, we are capable of beating every team at this tournament. On paper, at least. There is also a lot of depth for England, particularly in attack and defense. We are chock full of first-team starters at their respective clubs. Indeed, our bench players are better than some other teams’ starters.
But England’s greatest issue at this tournament will be Southgate’s conservative approach and tactics. It’s true that the system implemented (3 at the back, with a slow buildup towards the goal) works fairly well, but on the off occasion it doesn’t, England struggle to adapt. Southgate has a ton of faith in the players he likes, and for whatever reason he is slow to respond to negative events in a given match. The best teams know how to win in more ways than one, and I am concerned that Southgate is either unwilling or unable to realize that. Will he roll the dice when needed? Will he make the correct adjustment that leads to a win? We will have to see. If England do not play well this tournament, it will be his job on the line. Failure to get out of the group would be unacceptable for a team of this caliber.
Personally, I want to see a ruthless England in this group stage. Nay; a positively villainous England. It’s no secret that most of the world won’t be cheering for us for a variety of reasons, so it’s time to embrace that villainy and use it to our advantage. Let’s go out and put 4 goals past each team. Let’s dive to the floor like Italians whenever a tackle comes in. Let’s go out there and commit some professional fouls in the first 10 minutes of matches so oppositions know we aren’t messing about. I don’t want us to just win, I want the opposition utterly demoralized. We already have the talent, but now we need to be nasty! If we have to go out, I want us to go out kicking and screaming every inch of the way.
England plays their first match against Iran on November 21.
4-4-2 