Euro 2020(1) Semifinal Preview Part 1 – Italy vs. Spain

Two giants of European football will face off tomorrow at Wembley Stadium in London (noon PDT), and it truly is a marquee matchup between Italy and Spain. These two teams have played each other many times in this tournament, with the Italians being victorious in the Round of 16 at Euro 2016 and the Spanish prevailing in the final of Euro 2012. As alluded to, both these teams have won World Cups and both have won the Euros. Spain have three European titles (1964, 2008, 2012) while the Italians have only one (1968), but Italy has several more World Cups. No matter which you slice it, fans of both of these teams have high expectations whenever their national sides are on the pitch.

Italy

The Italians have probably been the best team at this tournament so far, dominating in the group stages and taking down a stubborn Austria side in the Round of 16. The victory over Belgium in the quarterfinals is what really sold me on this particular Italian team though. Yes they are talented, coached well, and did well against weaker opposition; but Belgium was the first real stiff test for them at this tournament and they did just enough to advance. That match was entertaining in the first half but dreadfully boring in the second, but I think that was done on purpose. The Italians had the lead, and they have a very stout defense anchored by long-tenured center backs Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini. What those two lack in athleticism they more than make up for in positioning, strength, and tactical nous. It is very difficult to get in behind them, as Belgium and other teams have found out. The structure of the team is built on the resilient back line, and so far it has worked for Italian manager Roberto Mancini.

When off the ball, the Italians are on the prowl like a pack of wild dogs. Their tactics are based on pressing high up the pitch to force the opposition into mistakes, and when they are on the ball and looking to score they run directly at defenses. Italy are traditionally a team that likes to create chances through slow build up play, but Mancini has thrown tradition out the window. These aggressive tactics can be risky, but it works when you have speedy players and a solid back line. They also have the depth of talent needed to keep using these tactics late into matches when the opposition is tiring. Mancini has however kept alive the tradition of Italian shithousery (diving, moaning for fouls, time wasting), and that makes them very effective at running out the clock. If Italy has a lead with 10 or so minutes left, look for them all to start falling over like they’ve been shot every time the other team’s players go near them. Not being cynical because it’s part of the sport and everyone is guilty of it to a degree, but that is what they will do if they’re trying to protect a lead.

Players to Watch: Bonucci, Chiellini, Lorenzo Insigne, Marco Veratti, Manuel Locatelli, Federico Chiesa, Ciro Immobile

Notably absent is left back Leonardo Spinazzola. He tore his ACL in the match against Belgium, and it’s a shame he can’t play anymore because he’s been absolutely electric down Italy’s left hand side. Pace, dribbling, crosses, it’s all been magic and his loss is a huge one.

Spain

Spain are a much more curious team. They’re certainly talented of course and have a manager in Luis Enrique who has won a ton of trophies at the club level, but they have been somewhat inconsistent this tournament. They struggled to two draws in their opening two group matches against Sweden and Slovakia, but then came alive and scored 10 goals in the next two games against Russia and Croatia. In their quarterfinal match with Switzerland though they were back to struggling in attack and needed penalties to finally put away the Swiss. The inconsistency of their form and whether or not they can create quality chances will be two large concerns for Spain. Which team is going to show up?

One positive for Spain is that they do not have to worry about the Italians putting 10 men behind the ball and parking the proverbial bus in front of their own net. Italy will come at them for large portions of the match, and that will inevitably leave gaps in midfield that Spain can potentially work the ball into with their passing game. Spain’s tactics are based entirely on short and medium passes that enable them to more easily retain possession. Possession of the ball is the foundation of their tactics, the logic being that the less the other team has the ball, the less likely they are to score. Spain do not take many chances with the ball when it comes to passing the ball forward, but they are very good at passing it around the edge of the box and trying to create gaps in defenses that way. It worked wonderfully well from 2008-2012 when Spain won 3 major trophies, but a lack of cutting edge at the center forward position in recent years has frequently been Spain’s undoing. After all, you don’t win a match by possessing the ball more. You win by scoring more, and when your strikers are in poor form, all the possession in the world doesn’t really matter.

This match will be won by whichever side wins the passing/pressing cat-and-mouse game. Will the Spanish be able to pass the ball around the press effectively, or will Italy be all over them and cause them to make mistakes? The Spanish have been prone to defensive breakdowns and mistakes this tournament, most notably against Croatia and Switzerland. They will need to be at their very best in order to beat Italy. Concentration will be vital. The mental aspect of the game is so important and never gets talked about, really. It doesn’t matter what your tactics are as a manager if your players lose concentration in key moments and fail to execute.

Players to watch: Ferran Torres, Gerard Moreno, Alvaro Morata, Koke, Jordi Alba, Pedri, Aymeric Laporte

Prediction

I think Italy has the edge in terms of depth. They win a closely contested match, 2-1.

Euro 2020(1) Quarterfinals – Two Tense Matches on Day 1

A few days off were needed for travel purposes, but the Euro 2020(1) quarterfinals got underway today with the first two games. Next two are tomorrow. All 8 of the remaining teams went in to the weekend knowing they were only three matches away from European glory. Spain took on Switzerland in St. Petersburg, Russia before the heavyweight fight between Italy and Belgium in Munich, Germany.

Spain vs. Switzerland

The Spanish were favorites coming into this match, as they boasted a lot more talent than the Swiss and are in a very rich vein of form. They have scored 10 goals in their past two matches, which is always impressive at a tournament. The Swiss however will not be afraid of anyone, having already slain the Goliath known as France. Importantly however, their captain and best midfielder Granit Xhaka was suspended due to yellow card accumulation. With Xhaka out, I thought the task just might be a tad too tall for the Swiss today.

It was clear from the outset what each team’s strategy was. The Spanish started out with their traditional possession-based game and the Swiss were quite content to let them have the ball a bit. The Swiss pressed on occasion and were trying to force the Spanish into mistakes high-up the pitch. That’s not a bad strategy as Spain can be prone to mistakes at the back, but it all went to hell for the Swiss less than 10 minutes in when Spain left back Jordi Alba fired a shot from a loose ball into the Swiss penalty area. The shot was somewhat hopeful and speculative, but it was effective nonetheless as it was redirected into the Swiss goal past keeper Yann Sommer on accident by defensive midfielder Denis Zakaria. Alba was credited with the goal initially by UEFA but they later changed it to an own-goal from Zakaria, which was probably harsh on Zakaria as Alba’s shot appeared to be on target. In any event, it was unlucky for the Swiss.

The rest of the half passed mostly without incident. Somewhat tepid, to be honest. Switzerland were again unlucky to see starting forward Breel Embolo go off after 20 minutes with a hamstring injury, and Spain were guilty of wasting a good chance that resulted from a free header by left back Cesar Azpilicueta. Aside from that though, not much else happened in the first half.

The second half started in similar fashion to the first, not a lot between the two sides. The Swiss were starting to ask more questions of the Spanish defense though, and Zakaria was again unlucky to see his header go just wide from a corner. The Swiss had an excellent chance come via midfielder Steven Zuber who forced a fine save from a tight angle by Spanish keeper Unai Simon.

The Swiss got their equalizer however just five minutes after that shot across the bow via Xherdan Shaqiri, a man affectionately known as “The Cube” by supporters due to his box-like physique. Two Spanish defenders (Pau Torres and Aymeric Laporte) both went for the same ball and their collision resulted in a loose ball that was pounced on by Swiss midfielder Remo Freuler. Freuler did well to find Shaqiri a few yards to his left, and The Cube made no mistake with a finish along the ground and off the inside of the left-hand post. The Swiss had fought back again, despite not really looking like doing so for good portions of the match.

Freuler found himself in the center of things again a few minutes later, but this time for negative reasons. He went into a tackle with both feet and his feet lifted off the ground, and made some very harsh contact with the Spanish player on the ball. English referee Michael Oliver went straight into his pocket and produced a red card. Upon review it was a rash tackle, and while you don’t always get a red card for such a challenge, it is very risky to try and tackle with both feet. You are inviting danger when you do that, and Freuler was punished for it.

Spain went into the ascendency after that due to the Swiss being down a man, but they could not make the most of their advantage and failed to score another in normal time. Extra time would be needed, which was a significant disadvantage for the tiring Swiss players. Having to play another 30 minutes with 10 men whilst having already played a full 90 is positively exhausting. However, again, Spain could not take advantage, despite some excellent chances falling to striker Gerard Moreno.

Penalties came and it was evident the fatigue being felt by the Swiss players. Spain missed two penalties themselves, but the Swiss could only convert one of them. Simon made two fine saves for sure, but I saw some very tired penalties from the Swiss. They were either hit too soft or blazed over the bar, because when fatigue sets in to the legs it is very difficult to maintain your technique and control when striking the ball. Perhaps if all 11 men had played until the end it would have ended differently, but of course now we’ll never know.

Credit to the Spanish for converting their penalties, but I would be very concerned about the semifinal if I was a Spaniard. The theme of poor finishing and defensive mistakes continued today, and against a more talented side they could have easily lost.

Spain advance to the semifinals at Wembley in midweek, where they await the winner of Belgium and Italy.

Belgium vs. Italy

Loads of talking points for this match, as it probably is the most intriguing fixture of the quarterfinals. Italy have the history of winning basically everything at major tournaments, although up until this tournament started there were questions concerning inexperience among this current batch of Italian players. They’ve done well this tournament, but their previous match against Austria caused some concerns among supporters about their ability to kill of teams effectively.

The Belgians come in with their current “Golden Generation” of players that are absolutely desperate to win the first major trophy for their country of any kind. Center forward Romelu Lukaku was in excellent form, but the major concern for Belgium was the fitness of star players Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard. Both of them are carrying injuries, but De Bruyne in particular is key to Belgian success at this tournament. As I have said before, there are serious arguments for De Bruyne being labelled as the best attacking midfielder in the world. De Bruyne did play in this match but Hazard did not.

Two great managers here too – Roberto Mancini for Italy and Roberto Martinez for Belgium. Interestingly, the last time these two managers faced off it was during an FA Cup final at Wembley, with Martinez’s Wigan Athletic pulling a shock upset over Mancini’s Manchester City.

The match was a little slow to start things off, with neither side really threatening the other in the first 10 minutes. Italy had the ball in the back of the Belgian net on 12 minutes though after a free kick found center back Giorgio Chiellini for a tap in, but after a VAR check the goal was correctly disallowed for offside. Chiellini was about a foot ahead of the ball when it came off his fellow defender Leonardo Bonucci. The tempo of the match did increase after that though, as Belgium knew they were given a let off. Romelu Lukaku did well to force a save from Gianluigi Donnarumma low to his right after good work from De Bruyne on a counter-attack. Gauging how this match would go from that point, it was likely that the team that made the fewest mistakes would go on to win. These teams were simply too evenly matched to call it one way or another. Good for the neutral of course, but nerve-wracking for supporters of the two countries.

You could call this fixture a chess match given all the tactical switching and formation changes by both teams throughout the opening half, but people tend to think of chess matches as boring and this game was anything but. End-to-end play that felt at times more like basketball than footie. The pace and energy from both teams was absolutely relentless.

The Italians broke the deadlock on 31 minutes via midfielder Nicolo Barella after a poor giveaway by Belgian defender Thomas Vermaelen. The ball fell to the dangerous playmaker Marco Veratti who played in Barella, and he made no mistake with his finish over the top of Belgian keeper Thibault Courtois. Italy were even more energized by their goal and were able to grab another one from winger Lorenzo Insigne 12 minutes later. The first Italian goal was good, but the second one was a work of art from Insigne. He carried the ball about 50 yards, slaloming past a Belgian defender before shooting from the edge of the box. He got a lot of curl on the ball and the pace of it gave Courtois no chance to save. Truly breathtaking and a candidate for goal of the tournament.

The drama of the first half was not over though, as a penalty was awarded to Belgium just two minutes later in stoppage time. Teenage Belgian winger Jeremy Doku did well to beat his marker with pace in the left channel, and he went down inside the box after a shove in the back. The penalty was probably soft by most standards and the Italians were strenuously complaining, but VAR checked and the penalty stood. It’s a bit rich for Italians to complain about players going down too easily anyway, when they are the ones historically known as egregious divers. Lukaku stepped up to the spot and coolly put the ball past Donnarumma after sending him the wrong way.

The chaos continued in the second half, with both sides fashioning good chances but neither being able to finish them. Both Lukaku and Insigne were on fire and there were times when neither defense could get near those two players. There were more injuries and fouls in the second half as well, which wasn’t surprising given the effort and energy being put in by the players. The stoppages were really just temporary lulls in this hurricane of a match.

But the onus was on the Belgians to find an equalizer, and the Italians made subs that indicated they were going more defensive for the final 15 minutes or so, including switching to a back-5. They battened down the hatches and simply let Belgium come at them. It should be pointed out that as the game went on the Italians were engaging in what I like to call “shithousery”, meaning they were doing everything and anything to slow down the game without being penalized for it. They were taking their time with injuries, fouls, substitutions, and just generally wasting as much time as possible. While these Italians might play more attractive football than in the past, they clearly have not forgotten their traditional methods of gamesmanship mastered by their predecessors. I don’t like it as a tactic, but of course every team does it in matches of great importance.

The Belgians just couldn’t fashion another solid chance against the impregnable Italian back line, and the whistle finally blew. Italy held on to win despite a valiant effort from Belgium.

Italy will play Spain on Tuesday, July 6 at Wembley.

Tomorrow

Czech Republic vs. Denmark (9 am PDT)

England vs. Ukraine (Noon PDT)

I like England’s chances against Ukraine but they are a team with nothing to lose. No side should be taken lightly at this point. If a team makes the quarterfinals of a major tournament, that team is there for a reason.

Manchester United Lose Out to Villarreal in the Europa League Final on Penalties

I’m not mad, I’m just disappointed.

The Red Devils lost out on the chance to win silverware for the first time in 4 years after an epic penalty shootout that saw them lost 11-10. Goalkeeper David De Gea’s tame penalty was saved by Villarreal keeper Geronimo Rulli after the score was 1-1 at the end of regulation and the end of full time.

The match was cagey and sloppy by both sides, but several things went wrong for United that on another day may not have. For one, United were without club captain and center back Harry Maguire, still recovering from an ankle injury. That definitely contributed to Villarreal’s goal, scored from a set piece by Villarreal forward Gerard Moreno. The ball was played in from the left channel and no one bothered to mark Moreno, who scored from close range. It really was poor defending from United, who looked very disorganized on the play. The first half overall was poor for United, as we created very little up front and conceded such a soft goal. Down 1-0 at the half was a familiar position for United though, having won a whopping 31 points from losing positions in the Premier League this season. If any team knew how to make a come back, it was this one.

United did improve in the second half and created a few more chances, and eventually did get an equalizer through Edinson Cavani. This goal was also the result of a set piece, although this time it was a corner. The ball fell to Paul Pogba on the edge of the box, and he lashed a shot along the turf that came back off Rulli directly to Cavani for a tap-in. VAR checked for offside, but the goal stood. I thought after that United would kick on and get another, but Villarreal’s defense held firm and United could not capitalize on their dominance in possession.

Extra time was eventually needed, and United’s second half dominance waned significantly. The players looked tired, as manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer hadn’t made any substitutions. Villarreal kicked into a gear a little and created a half chance or two of their own, but again there was never any real threat to De Gea’s goal. Penalties would decide.

And what a shootout it was. I don’t think I have ever seen a shootout in a professional match where all 22 men on the pitch had to take one. Not only that, but every single penalty was scored as well, up until De Gea’s low-energy shot. My nerves were absolutely shot at the end and I couldn’t imagine how the players must have been feeling. For those unfamiliar with penalty shootouts, they usually end within the first 5 shots from both teams. It’s rare to go to 6, and even rarer to go beyond that. All 22 men taking a penalty and 21 of them being scored has to be some sort of statistical record.

De Gea was crestfallen at the end and understandably so, but he isn’t the reason we lost this match. Certainly not primarily, at least. No, this match was lost primarily due to the tactics of OGS and a lack of execution from several major players. I said in the match preview that the big players such as Bruno Fernandes, Marcus Rashford, Cavani, and Pogba would all need to show up, but it was really only Cavani and midfielder Scott McTominay that can hang their heads high today. Bruno was anonymous due to being man-marked out of the game by Villarreal. Rashford had his worst game in a United shirt I’ve ever seen. Pogba was too far back in terms of the position assigned to him, so he couldn’t contribute to the attack.

United beating themselves was the main theme, but not the only theme. The tactics of Villarreal manager Unai Emery were spot-on, and objectively he must be credited for that. They set up two banks of four just on the edge of the penalty box, and they always ensured that someone was following Bruno around and harassing him every time he was on the ball. He likes to play between the midfield line and defensive line, but their lines were so close together there was nowhere for him to receive the ball. The plan was to make Bruno retreat further and further back to get on the ball, and it worked like a charm for the majority of the match.

I think playing Pogba as a defensive midfielder next to McTominay was a mistake as well. Pogba has had success on the left hand side of the attack this season in a 4-2-3-1 formation, where he combines with Luke Shaw and Rashford to give defenses major headaches. I understand the thinking from OGS there, as it allowed him to put Cavani, Rashford, and Mason Greenwood on the pitch at the same time to potentially create a more potent attack. But due to the defensive positioning and discipline of Villarreal, those attackers were cut off from Pogba as he could not venture forward without shirking his defensive duties. He was too far back and Villarreal had too many men in the area.

But I think the biggest error from OGS today were all the issues surrounding substitutions. It was clear that a change of pace was needed around the 75th minute, yet OGS waited over 20 minutes to make a change. Emery had made several changes in the second half and it was clear that Villarreal were the fresher and more energetic side for it. I simply don’t understand what OGS was thinking there. We had dynamic players with pace who could run at more tired defenders in Daniel James and Amad Diallo, and while James was eventually brought on it was again too late to make a difference. I understand the depth of our squad isn’t where it needs to be, but I strongly believe that we have players who could have made a difference today had they been deployed earlier.

Further, the substitutions made by OGS didn’t really make sense to me. It was clear he was playing for penalties once extra time started, and I absolutely hate that strategy. Penalty kicks are a lottery, and a team like United shouldn’t be holding out for them when we have the firepower that we have. Besides, you play to win the fucking game! The most glaring example of this conservative approach was the fact that Rashford was left on the pitch when he should have been off much earlier. He lost possession more times than I can count today, and while I love what he’s done this season it was clear that today was not his day. Taking Greenwood off instead of Rashford was clearly a decision made with penalties in mind, and I think it was the wrong move. Rashford might be a better penalty taker than Greenwood, but at least Greenwood had showed flashes of competency today! He might have been able to combine with one of our pacey wingers to create something, you never know.

Also, lastly, if you are going to hoard your subs and play for penalties, at least put your penalty-saving goalkeeper in the match. De Gea is excellent at stopping shots from open play and distributing the ball, but hadn’t (and still hasn’t) saved a penalty kick since 2016. Dean Henderson was the keeper on the bench today for United, and he has had more success stopping penalties recently. It may not have made a difference, but I think OGS should have doubled down on his penalty-gamble and subbed on Henderson for De Gea. It would have given the Villarreal players something to think about and I think Henderson may have saved at least one of them. De Gea looked somewhat unsure of himself and as a result never really committed to any of his dives. He got near one of their shots but couldn’t keep it out. The point though is that if you want to gamble on penalties, you have to go all-in. You can’t half-ass it and then be mad when the gamble doesn’t pay off.

I do hope OGS has learned from this experience and that he uses it to bring us a trophy next season. I think Emery taught him a lesson today, and it’s a lesson he won’t soon forget. If you set up your team tactically to take risks, but then your players don’t take any risks and you don’t change the game plan, there’s a good chance you can lose a one-off final to less talented competition.

The season did end on a sour note but there is Champions League football to look forward to next season and the promise of challenging again. Going to a European final is progress, but we need to win something, and it needs to be soon. This upcoming summer transfer window will be absolutely crucial.