World Cup Final – Preview: Argentina vs. France

Qatar should get no recognition or goodwill for hosting this event and FIFA needs to be investigated by some sort of regulatory commission for corruption.

Congrats to Croatia for taking 3rd place today. Coupled with a runners-up spot in 2018, this is by far their most successful era. Morocco also deserve a congratulations, as their 4th place finish is the highest ever for an African side.

France vs. Argentina

France: The team known colloquially as Les Bleus are in their second straight World Cup Final and are looking to be the first team to repeat as champions since Brazil did it in 1958 and 1962. They already have two World Cups, having won in 1998 and 2018. They have an array of talented players throughout the team, with the obvious focal point being all-world striker Kylian Mbappe. He has been fairly quiet in recent matches as defenders have been focused on marking him out of the game, but he has been able to contribute with his runs on the ball pulling defenders away from teammates. The main thing I’ve noticed about this France team is that they do a lot with very little. Their past two games against Morocco and England have frankly been unimpressive, aside from brief moments of quality that they take full opportunity of. France only had two meaningful attacks against Morocco, but they scored on both of them. “Clinical” is a good word to use to describe France. Their greatest strength this tournament has been their ruthlessness in front of goal.

That being said, there are weaknesses in this team that did not exist in 2018. Their central midfield is lacking a consistent long-range passer, their fullbacks are backups or other players being played out of position, and they don’t have a ton of depth off the bench. All of these problems are caused by the numerous injuries that happened both before and during the tournament. Paul Pogba, Karim Benzema, Presnal Kimpembe, N’Golo Kante, and Christopher Nkunku would all be in as starters normally, but none of them have played a single minute in this tournament. Fullback Theo Hernandez, deputizing for his injured brother Lucas Hernandez, has had some calamitous moments at left back. Despite the presence of stalwart center back Raphael Varane, this French defense might be their biggest weakness. Argentina’s attackers will know this, and will likely be licking their lips.

Argentina: La Albiceleste are in their first final since 2014 and are looking to win their first World Cup since 1986. The South Americans lost in heartbreaking fashion in that 2014 final to Germany, and they find themselves facing European opposition again this time around. The big headline for Argentina of course is that this will be the last ever World Cup match for their captain and attacking midfielder Lionel Messi. Regular readers of this blog (and basically anybody who has ever taken the time to watch football) know all about Messi, and his plaudits are far too many to list. Suffice it to say, he’s the Greatest Of All Time. Of course, the one and only trophy he is missing from his treasure trove of silverware is the Jules Rimet trophy, a.k.a. the World Cup. This is literally his last chance to win it. He showed against Croatia he still has the mesmerizing ball skills that made him famous, and his contributions will be the key to Argentina’s chances. Messi will undoubtedly be looking at that patchwork French defense with hunger in his eyes and 2014 fresh in his mind. He is already the best to ever a kick a ball, but hoisting that trophy above his head will eliminate all lingering doubt.

Unlike 2014, Messi has a lot more support in attack and midfield this time. Striker Julian Álvarez is having himself a sensational tournament at the young age of 22. He has been the principal and primary beneficiary of Messi’s brilliance in recent matches. When Messi is able to pull defenders out of position, it leaves holes for Álvarez to sneak into and get a shot away. Argentina’s third goal against Croatia in the semis is the perfect example of this. A brilliant run from Messi to pull defenders in, and then Messi finds a mostly unmarked Álvarez for a simple tap-in. I have also been impressed with their build-up play through midfield, and they have the work rates of Alexis Mac Allister and Enzo Fernandez to thank for that. When you couple attacking support for Messi with an improved midfield and the usual stingy Argentine defense, you start to see that this is a very complete team. Center backs Nicolas Otamendi and Lisandro Martinez have been having very good tournaments respectively.

The tactics of manager Lionel Scaloni will likely determine Argentina’s fate, however. How will they play this should they manage to get themselves into the lead? Will they keep attacking like they did against Croatia and win easily? Or will they go into defensive mode and try to hold on, like they did against Australia and the Netherlands? In those two games they conceded late, and it nearly cost them both times. They had to rely on penalties to beat the Dutch, for example. Put simply, if Argentina get an early goal or two, they should keep their foot on the gas for all 90 minutes. If they start pulling men back on 70 minutes to protect a slim lead, that could be disastrous against a team with France’s attack.

Here’s to an entertaining final where the referee is not part of the headlines!

Prediction: Argentina 2-1 France (Argies get a late winner in extra time)

World Cup Quarterfinals: Preview (Day 2)

Do not believe a single thing the Qatar state media says about Qatar. It’s all lies. Same with FIFA. They’re all liars and hypocrites.

Saturday brings us two excellent matchups!

Portugal vs. Morocco – Saturday December 10th – 7 AM PST

Morocco has shocked the world twice already by beating Belgium and Spain, and they will look to do that for a third time against an in-form Portuguese side.

There’s no real mystery as to how this game will go from Morocco’s point of view. They are going to use their well-disciplined back-6 (4 defenders, a defensive mid, and the keeper) to sit back and park the proverbial bus. They will be more than happy to let Portugal have all the possession, just like they did against Spain. When they recover the ball, they will look to quickly play it long towards their pacey wingers/forwards like Hakim Ziyech. If they can get those forwards in behind the Portuguese defense regularly, it could be yet another upset for them. The longer this match stays at 0-0, the bigger the advantage for Morocco. All they need is one good opportunity to score, and they will likely take it. They are just the 4th African team in history to make the quarterfinals of the World Cup, but they will not want their Cinderella run to end here. They will go at the Portuguese when the opportunity presents itself to try and win. They’ll be penned in their own half for most of the match, but Portugal will need to be on their toes if/when the balls breaks for Morocco.

Portugal will be the toughest test for the north Africans so far. They have found good team chemistry despite the dramatics of one Cristiano Ronaldo, and they have a good mix of youth and experience. They scored for fun against the Swiss in the Round of 16, and I expect them to be on the front foot for most of this match. Striker Gonçalo Ramos, along with midfielders Bruno Fernandes and João Félix, will probably be responsible for Portugal’s attacking duties. All three of those players I just listed are in extremely good form right now. Without checking, I am fairly sure that Bruno leads all players in assists at this tournament. They are also much more direct than the Spanish, relying more on getting the ball forward quickly as opposed to trying to pass the opponent to death. Ramos also cannot be given any space when in the box, as he is capable of scoring from a variety of angles. If the Portuguese get a goal in the first half, it could be a very long day for Morocco.

Prediction: Portugal 1-0 Morocco (0-0 after 90 minutes, but Portugal gets the winner in extra time)

England vs. France – Saturday December 10th – 11 AM PST

Oh dear. Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. Nerves are through the roof for this one. Where to even begin? France are the defending world champions and certainly have the talent to win another World Cup this year. England were semi-finalists in 2018, and were runners-up at Euro 2021 last summer. Both sides are loaded with talent, and both sides have the ability to win this match. Along with Netherlands-Argentina, this match is as about as close as it gets to a toss-up.

The big threats from France come from all-world striker Kylian Mbappe and striker Olivier Giroud, who will be supported by the likes of wingers Ousmane Dembele and Antoine Griezmann. All four of those guys are capable of winning matches on their own, particularly Mbappe. The man is in sensational form right now and leads all other scorers in the race for the Golden Boot. He not only has Olympic-caliber sprinting abilities, he also has the ability to score from almost anywhere inside 20 yards. His two finishes against Poland in the Round of 16 were real “poacher’s” goals, as they were hit not only with power but precision and from a fair bit of distance. Put simply, he is the main source of inspiration for the French and will need to be closely marshalled by the England defense. If he is given too much space in the box, France will score. One concern for the French is their number of injuries, and perhaps a lack of pace in the back line. France are extremely deep even with injuries to Paul Pogba, Karim Benzema, and Christopher Nkunku, but as a result of those absences they are perhaps not as deep as they were when they won in 2018. I also think their fullbacks Jules Kounde and Theo Hernandez lack a little bit of pace. That hasn’t hurt them so far, but they have not played an attack like England’s yet. This is not to say that the French back line isn’t good, as they are indeed anchored by world-class center back Raphael Varane. I do think however that attacks down the wings will create the most problems for France.

As for England, well, there is no denying their talent in attack. Going forward, this might be the strongest England side I have ever seen. They have the big physical center forward in Harry Kane, and he is often supported by forwards/wingers Marcus Rashford, Bukayo Saka, and Phil Foden. All four of them have scored at this tournament, and while Kane’s goals are slightly down he has contributed in other ways. His passes from midfield that find the runs of Rashford and Foden have been absolutely deadly. Whether Kane is in the box or distributing from midfield, he will have a very important role to play. Tactically I think manager Gareth Southgate will be happy to concede a little bit of possession to the French, as England’s first two goals in the Round of 16 against Senegal came via quick counter-attack moves. Midfielder Jude Bellingham will also have a vital role to play, as he is usually the one who carries the ball forward through midfield while riding challenges from the opposition. His balance and technique on the ball are among the best I have ever seen from a midfielder his size, and he is still only 19. England’s back line and defense will be tested against the French, but so far they have largely passed all tests presented to them. Interestingly, the best form of defense for England will be a good attack. If we keep the French on their toes and wary of us breaking on them, they will have a harder time throwing men forward.

It’s going to take the collective efforts of everyone in a Three Lions shirt to get a win on Saturday. Total focus and concentration. One error could be the difference between the semifinals and a flight home. This England team has taken so many major steps forward since 2018, and they must continue to do so here. A win over the French at the World Cup would be historic. They are a formidable foe, but then again, so are England. Southgate must take the handbrake off for this team and let them run at the French defense. If we lose, it will be because we played too conservatively.

Prediction: both teams to score at least one, but I am not going to pick a winner. Whatever I say, it will somehow negatively affect England. Superstition abounds right now.

Real Madrid Crowned Champions of Europe in Paris

The Super Bowl of Europe happened today, and it featured two giants of the game in Liverpool FC and Real Madrid CF at the Stade de France in a rematch of the 2018 final. Liverpool were looking to add a 7th European Cup to their trophy cabinet and take some revenge from losing that 2018 final, while Madrid were looking to win it for an amazing 14th time. It was a lovely evening in Paris weather-wise, although the match was marred by ineptitude from UEFA and stadium officials who couldn’t figure out how to get fans in the queues into their seats. The delay of about 36 minutes probably impacted the match one way or another, and for UEFA to blame it on fans arriving late was nothing but comical. It is positive that there were no major issues with violence, but seeing fans tear gassed and maced just for trying to get in when they had a ticket to do so is a disgrace.

A lot of the pre-match talk centered on how each team would play the game from a tactical perspective, and it was agreed by most of the talking heads on television that Liverpool would probably be the more adventurous and attacking side, while Madrid would try to hold on as best they could and try to steal a goal when the chance presented itself. There was also concern from a Liverpool perspective about fatigue and injuries, given that they have played a whopping 63 games this season and also had to play their starters more frequently in the past few weeks than Madrid did.

And indeed, the first 40 minutes or so carried the theme of Liverpool domination with the Madridistas doing just enough to keep them out. All-world forwards Sadio Mané and Mohamed Salah had good chances to take the lead, but the massive Belgian goalkeeper between the posts for Los Blancos had other ideas. Thibaut Courtois produced several fine saves in the first half that kept Liverpool at arm’s length while the Madrid forwards were struggling to get on the ball and create chances.

Some major controversy came just before halftime though, when Madrid striker Karim Benzema put the ball in the back of the net from about 6 yards out after Liverpool failed to properly clear the ball. Benzema appeared to have scored a good goal, but it was ruled out for offside. After a lengthy VAR check, it was determined that Benzema was offside. It is true that he was in an offside position, as there was only one man between him the goal when the ball rolled to him. However, Benzema’s position wasn’t the issue. The key question was whether or not the ball to him came from a deliberate move by a Liverpool player. Replays showed the ball ricocheting to Benzema after a collision of Liverpool defenders in the box, and the VAR official determined that ricochet to be unintentional. The goal was ruled out, despite some serious dissention from the public and the match pundits. The first 45 minutes then finished 0-0 without further incident.

The second half kind of went much like the first as things got back underway. Madrid grew into the game a little bit, but it was still mostly Liverpool asking all the questions. That changed on 59 minutes when Real drew first blood, with the help of a bit of good fortune. Madrid winger Federico Valverde was allowed to run into the box by the Liverpool defense, and he fired what appeared to be a shot towards the goal low and powerful along the ground. His shot went wide though, but luckily it went straight into the path of young Brazilian forward/winger Vinicius Jr. Vinicius had beaten his marker and was open at the far post, and he simply re-directed Valverde’s driven shot into the goal, with Liverpool keeper Alisson unable to do anything about it. Seemingly from nothing, Madrid were ahead 1-0. Liverpool right back Trent Alexander-Arnold can probably be apportioned a good deal of fault, as he was the one caught out of position and napping when Vinicius darted past him. Such is the risk of playing TAA at right back – he is an excellent attacking player but can suffer from defensive lapses at very inopportune moments.

Liverpool kept at it though, with wave after wave of red attacks repeatedly crashing against a white wall of Madrid defenders. Courtois continued his domination from the first half well into the second as well. It must be said that even though Madrid defended well today, Liverpool probably should have done better with some of the chances they had. Salah in particular was guilty of missing some shots that he would normally put away, most glaringly when he had a breakaway down the right side but couldn’t get the ball past Courtois at the near post. It was a tense and nervy final 30 minutes, but Liverpool ultimately could not fashion an equalizer. The final whistle blew and Madrid won 1-0.

From a neutral perspective it was a good final, but it does feel like Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp played directly into the hands of Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti’s tactics. Madrid midfielder Casemiro was given the liberty to drop back into defense when needed, which created a back-5 for Madrid that was incredibly difficult to break down. It seemed like the Scousers were relying on winger/forward Luis Diaz to win his battles with Madrid right back Dani Carvajal and create chances from the left wing, but Diaz (and his eventual replacement Diogo Jota) were pocketed by Carvajal the whole evening. Combine that with a goalkeeping masterclass from Courtois, and you get a team that was very difficult to score against.

Congrats to Real Madrid on winning their record 14th European Cup and completing a Double, as they had already won La Liga this season. A case could be made for Carvajal to be Man of the Match, but realistically it has to go to Courtois. He made an incredible nine (9) saves today, the most in a CL Final since 2003-04. Without him, Madrid probably lose this match. A big day from the bulky Belgian!

Gonna take a second to laugh at Liverpool too. Yes they had a much better season than Man United so I can’t laugh too hard, but there is an element of schadenfreude in seeing them lose. A month ago the Scousers were singing songs about winning the Quadruple, only for them to finish the season with two domestic cup trophies. They lost to Madrid today and couldn’t wrestle the Premier League title away from Man City, which is funny to anyone who hates them. I guess sometimes you do have to walk alone.

Only one club football match left now, the Championship Playoff final at Wembley tomorrow between Nottingham Forest and Huddersfield Town. Very much hoping Forest can win and secure promotion to the Prem. After that is done though, the club season is over and all attention turns to the UEFA Nations League, with England set to play four matches during the month of June. There will be posts for all those matches of course, and I still will be addressing the situation with the World Cup in Qatar coming this fall/early winter.

Euro 2020(1) Round of 16, Day 3 – What a Thriller!

Two very appetizing matches happened on the penultimate day of the Round of 16. Spain took on Croatia in Copenhagen, Denmark before France and Switzerland travelled to Bucharest, Romania for their match. What resulted from today was probably the single best day of international football I have perhaps ever seen.

Spain vs. Croatia

This match was so good and so entertaining it almost deserves its own post, but I shall try to summarize effectively. I unfortunately did not get to watch this match due to a work engagement and I’m rather perturbed about that, because this was probably the most entertaining game of the tournament so far.

Most pundits and fans probably would have picked Spain to win this match, but only a fool would have written off Croatia and the result was far from certain. Spain hit 5 goals in their last group match, but before that they were having trouble breaking down more defensive-minded teams. Croatia were runners-up at the 2018 World Cup and still sport some incredibly talented – if old – players. Whenever your team has Luka Modric in it, you have a chance to win.

What transpired was everything a neutral fan could dream for – world class talent, rookie mistakes, and 8 goals scored. Spain made all the early runs and had the better chances in the first 20 minutes, but they found themselves down 1-0 after a fairly routine back pass from the Spanish defense bounced over Spain keeper Unai Simon’s right foot and rolled into the goal. Huge error, and you normally don’t see such a massive kerfuffle at this level. It was clear that Simon took his eye off the ball as it rolled back to him and he just…missed it. I’ve been a goalkeeper at the very amateur level, and I can tell you that there’s no worse feeling in the world than letting an easy one in. Elation for the Croats, though.

That elation didn’t last too long, as Spain were soon equal via midfielder Pablo Sarabia. The ball broke kindly for him in the box and he did well to ride a challenge and lash the ball past Croatian keeper Dominik Livakovic. It was probably the fair outcome, given that Spain had dominated the game since going behind and at halftime it was 1-1.

Spain got two more later in the second half via defender Cesar Azpilicueta, and then the other came in the 76th minute from striker Ferran Torres. I bring them both up simultaneously because both goals were scored after some bad defensive errors by Croatia. Azpilicueta was unmarked for his headed goal and couldn’t miss from so close, while Torres went around his defender like he wasn’t there for his goal. At 3-1 no one would blame you for assuming that the game was over for Croatia, given their defensive issues and lack of chances created.

But assumptions are not facts, and Croatia proved they have plenty of fighting spirit. Substitute winger Mislav Orsic put the cat amongst the pigeons by getting a second for Croatia in the 85th minute, and the goal galvanized his team. Croatia suddenly had a lot more energy, and Spain were holding on for dear life in the last 5-7 minutes. They couldn’t quite completely hold on though, as fellow substitute and midfielder Mario Pasalic headed home a cross from close range in the 92nd minute to send the Croatian fans into delirium. It was a stunning sequence of events and it meant that extra time would be necessary. In all honesty, striker Andrej Kramaric was unlucky not to put Croatia ahead 4-3 when his shot was blocked off the line by a defender. Spain were inches from losing this match!

But Spain once again were the stronger side to start the final 30 minutes, and this time their dominance paid dividends. The much-maligned Alvaro Morata put them ahead on 100 minutes, after he smartly controlled a high cross into the box and was able to volley it past Livakovic for number 4. I was happy for Morata, as he has been the target of a lot of criticism from the Spanish press and social media. He had missed a few of his easier chances, but converted the most difficult one at the most pivotal time. Usually when a team goes ahead in extra time they play more conservative, but Spain did not. Attacking midfielder Mikel Oyarzabal but the tie beyond all doubt when he slotted home from close range after another dangerous cross in from the right side. Croatia created some half-chances after that to keep things interesting, but Spain held on until the final whistle.

I hope I covered it all, but no written words can capture the drama and tension of this match. Just a classic, all around. Spain do seem to have defensive issues at times but 10 goals in two matches should make them feel much better about their attacking abilities. Up next, Spain will play the winner of France and Switzerland on Friday in the quarterfinals.

France vs. Switzerland

I didn’t think that this match would come anywhere close to the level of drama in the Spain match, but I was happy to be proven wrong. We got two high-scoring thrillers today, and two such games are great advertisements for this sport.

Most people expected France to brush aside the Swiss fairly easily. France are the reigning world champions and tons of articles have been written about their talent levels – Paul Pogba, Kylian Mbappe, N’golo Kante, Antoine Griezmann – all world beaters. On top of that, they have players on their bench that would probably start for any other country. Such is their strength in depth. The Swiss have some talent in the likes of Xherdan Shaqiri and Granit Xhaka, but on paper France should be taking this. But no match is played on paper, and France learned that the hard way today.

Much to everyone’s surprise, the first goal came from Switzerland. France looked uncomfortable in the opening 45 minutes; perhaps even unsettled. I would tend to think they weren’t helped by their tactical set-up, though. For some reason, France manager Didier Deschamps decided to employ a back 3 instead of France’s traditional back 4. I think this led to a little bit of passiveness for France. Why make a tough pass forward from the back when you can just square it to the extra center back? They weren’t used to this set up and I think subconsciously expected the Swiss to roll over for them, however they did not. It was some excellent center forward play from Haris Seferovic that earned the Swiss their goal. He is a big, strong striker and he simply outmuscled the Frenchman marking him to get his head on a cross from the left. Sometimes football really is that simple.

It was 1-0 at halftime and France looked a little shell-shocked. You knew it wasn’t over, but they knew they would need to play much better in order to win this match. France got a little bit of luck when the second half resumed when keeper Hugo Lloris saved a penalty from left back Ricardo Rodriguez. There were questions as to why Rodriguez was taking the penalty as he is not traditionally a goal scorer, and indeed it’s somewhat of a mystery as to why Seferovic or another striker didn’t take it. VAR checked the foul and the penalty call was probably correct, but Lloris showed his own class by making the save. That save energized the French a bit and they soon started playing like how most people expected them to.

Striker Karim Benzema brought France level from close range after a slick pass from Mbappe, and he got a second one only two minutes later after he headed in a cross/shot from Griezmann. France were ahead in a matter of mere minutes, and it was during this time that they really showed what they are capable of. They can just flip a switch and all of a sudden you’re losing. Pogba got a third roughly 15 minutes later, hitting an absolutely sublime strike past Swiss keeper Yann Sommer from about 22 yards out. Pogba really can hit some amazing shots; I just wish he would score like that for Manchester United as often as he does for France!

Again, at 3-1 with roughly 10-12 minutes left, no one would blame you for assuming France had it in the bag. They didn’t play well throughout the match, but most felt that 20-30 minute spell of world-class play would probably see them through. But once again, just like Croatia earlier in the day, the Swiss were not done. Seferovic popped up again with 9 minutes to go and headed in a lovely cross from the right side from close range. He found space between the French defenders this time and was able to get good contact on it. Now only down 1, the Swiss pressed on.

Striker Mario Gavranovic was then the hero for Switzerland, doing well to beat the French defense with a dribble before sliding an equalizer past Lloris in the 90th minute. He received an excellent pass through the middle from Xhaka and went around the closest defender like he wasn’t there. As good as France were for that 20-30 minute period, they were pretty bad in the final ten minutes. No concentration, poise, or game management. I do think a bit of hubris got to them today, especially once they were winning. All credit to the Swiss though for sticking to the task and forcing extra time after being down 2.

The extra time in this match was far less eventful than the early game. Both teams were clearly very tired, and some sloppy fouls by both sides really broke up the rhythm of the play. Mbappe probably should have scored after a sublime pass from Pogba through the middle, but he delayed just a fraction too long and blazed into the side netting. France were also required to make several subs due to injury and fatigue, having to take off winger Kingsley Coman, Griezmann, and goal-scorer Benzema. No goals scored in extra time meant that a penalty shootout would decide things.

Some argue that penalties are a lottery and not really a fair way to decide close matches, and while I can understand that argument, penalties were perfectly appropriate for this back-and-forth nature of this match today. The first nine penalties – 5 by the Swiss and 4 by France – were essentially perfect. Lloris came close to saving one but the ball still slipped past him despite contact with it. The hero of the day though was Sommer, who did very well to parry out the 5th French penalty. Mbappe took that last penalty and most expected him of all people to convert it, but he struck the ball rather unconvincingly and Sommer made a good save diving to his right.

World champions and tournament favorites France are OUT! Huge upset for Switzerland, even bigger than what the Czechs did against Netherlands yesterday. Switzerland earned the privilege to take on Spain in the quarterfinals next Friday.

Man of the Match: Granit Xhaka. Got the game-tying assist and was absolutely everywhere for the Swiss today, both in defense and attack.

Tomorrow

England vs. Germany (9 am PDT)

Sweden vs. Ukraine (Noon PDT)

England really need to beat Germany now. The stars are aligning for a deep tournament run if we can just get past the Germans!

England Victorious Over Austria and Romania, Plus Your European Championships Preview

Now the the club season is over, all eyes in the football world turn to the national teams and the summer tournaments. Major tournaments that were supposed to be played last summer, like the European Championships (Euros) and the Copa America, will be played this summer now that the COVID-19 pandemic is somewhat more under control. Even though the tournament is taking place in 2021, the tournament will still be known as Euro 2020, per UEFA. It’s kind of dumb to keep the original name when the tournament was postponed a year, but that’s UEFA for you. There was probably already a ton of merchandise made in anticipation of the tournament happening last summer, and the vendors that sponsor the tournament probably didn’t want to change it and throw out all their inventory. I should probably point out that only teams from Europe can compete in the Euros, so there will be no Brazil, Argentina, or USA in this tournament. They play in the tournaments of their respective regions this summer, CONMEBOL and CONCACAF.

The Euros are normally hosted by a single nation and matches usually happen within the borders of the host country. This year is odd though in that the matches will be played in large-capacity stadiums across Europe, with the first match (Italy vs. Turkey) kicking off at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome, Italy on Friday. Wembley Stadium in London will also heavily feature in this tournament, along with stadiums in Germany, Spain, Ireland, Portugal, Denmark, and others. This was UEFA’s plan even before anyone knew about COVID-19, but the pandemic has made things even more uncertain and last-minute. Planning a major tournament is a pain in the neck even in the best of times, so I anticipate at least some matches being rescheduled due to the fluidity of the situation. This is a very big regional tournament though, second only to the World Cup in terms of team trophies in terms of importance in the minds of European fans, players, and managers. It needs to be played, it just could not be done safely last summer.

In the run-up to a major tournament, most teams play “friendlys” (exhibition) matches against other countries so they can have some practice playing with each other before the tournament begins. Friendlies can be very useful for a manager in determining his team selection and tactics for the tournament, but they are very similar to pre-season games in the NFL and NBA in the sense that you can only take away so much useful information from them. Your team might win a friendly 5-0, but if you are playing a small country like Andorra or San Marino, that 5-0 win may not mean much going into the tournament. Similarly, if you lose to a big team like France in a friendly, again it might not mean much in terms of predicting tournament results. It’s all about observing individual performances and figuring out what tactics and team selection will translate from the friendly to the tournament and what will not.

England won both of their friendlies over Austria and Romania this past week, both by a score of 1-0. Both matches were akin to watching paint dry, but there were some positives to take away. Neither Austria nor Romania are out-and-out bad teams, as both have players throughout Europe’s top-5 domestic leagues and both know how to organize themselves properly. The winning goal against Austria was a follow-up from a tight angle by winger Bukayo Saka, who scored his first ever England goal and had a very good match overall. The Austria match is a good example of the limited scope of friendlies though, as no players from Manchester City or Chelsea played in that match as it was too soon after the Champions League final and those players needed a rest. There was a stronger selection available for the match this morning against Romania, and England did play better attacking football as a result. Winger Jadon Sancho was unfortunate to hit the woodwork in the first half, but England scored thanks a to a penalty won by midfielder Jack Grealish that was converted by striker Marcus Rashford. Liverpool midfielder Jordan Henderson did miss a penalty later, but it did not affect the result.

Two wins is better than two losses going into a tournament of course, but we still haven’t seen the best England lineup and its unclear just how far this team will go once the tournament starts. England manager Gareth Southgate knows of course that a degree of success is expected from this tournament. He has already said that reaching the semifinals is the least he expects, and anything else would be a failure. He is right to say that, given the level of talent in this squad. We need to win a trophy with all this talent that we have, plain and simple. If we do not, it is possible that Southgate loses his job in the next year or two. We have Champions League winners throughout this team, and the depth of the squad is the strongest it has been in years. Southgate must take advantage of all this talent and figure out the best way to get the most out of his players.

What I want to see from Southgate and his men primarily though is the ability to adapt to matches and be flexible with tactics if things aren’t going our way. We found a good formula to win matches at World Cup 2018 and it worked very well early on, but it was our inability to adapt our tactics that cost us the semifinal match against Croatia. Southgate was far too rigid in that match and refused to change anything or take any risks until it was too late. We need to be able to play a variety of formations in a variety of ways. It is easier said than done of course, but if/when we get to the later stages of the tournament, it will be vital for our chances to succeed. England’s “Plan A” is solid, but we need to have just-as-solid plans B,C,D, and maybe even E as well.

England are in a tough but not overly-scary Group D with Croatia, Czech Republic, and Scotland. World Cup finalists Croatia are the main concern, but I don’t think they are quite as sharp as they were 3 years ago. World-class midfielders Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic are coming off long seasons in Spain and no one on that team is getting any younger. Put simply, they’re very good but they’re also very old. Another concern is Scotland. What they lack in outright talent they make up for in hustle and shithousery. They always play England tough due to our geographical and historical rivalry, and they love nothing more than beating us. Scotland will gladly lose every match they play, as long as they beat England. I expect them to give us everything they’ve got. Czech Republic is probably the weakest team in the group and are probably co-favorites with Scotland to finish at the bottom, but they also have several Premier League players and should not be taken lightly. I think England have a good chance to win their group, but the match against Croatia will ultimately decide who takes this group. Two teams will advance out of the group stage, but if you win the group the draw is typically easier in the knockout rounds.

Some Other Teams to Watch

Portugal are the defending European Champions, having won in 2016 thanks largely to the Herculean efforts of superstar Cristiano Ronaldo. He will be back this summer for probably one of his final pushes for another major trophy with his national team. Ronaldo will likely play next summer at the 2022 World Cup, but his days in the team are numbered. Portugal currently have a bit of a “golden generation” going on given the talent they have at almost every position such as Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, and Ruben Dias. Those players will be expected to deliver, and they are all more than capable of doing so. Interestingly, this may be the most talented Portugal team Ronaldo has ever played in, so he may not need to do as much of the heavy lifting on his own.

France are the defending World Cup champions and are in the “Group of Death” with Portugal and Germany. France are once again absolutely loaded from top to bottom, and there are also high expectations for them in their home nation. When this France teams plays as a coherent unit, there are no other teams capable of stopping them. Champions League final Man of the Match N’Golo Kante is currently the best midfielder in the world, and he will be teaming up with another superstar in Paul Pogba to try and bring home another major trophy. Striker Karim Benzema is also in the form of his life, having had a stellar year at Real Madrid. His style of play also compliments the style of their other star striker, Kylian Mbappe. If France stay healthy and don’t succumb to infighting (which appears to be a thing of the past), they will be favorites to win the whole thing.

Belgium are probably the last team with the most realistic chance of winning this tournament, aside from France, Portugal, and England. Belgium are somewhat similar to England in the sense that the talent level they have does not reflect the level of success of the team. Players such as Romelu Lukaku, Eden Hazard, Kevin De Bruyne, and Youri Tielemans have all won trophies at the club level, but they can never quite put it together at a tournament for one reason or another. They impressively beat Brazil in the quarterfinals at World Cup 2018, but then lost in the semis to the aforementioned French juggernaut. It could be a team mentality problem or a lack of depth, but whatever it is this current crop of Belgians know that their window to win a trophy is closing. Like Croatia, their star players are good but aging. Belgium face a bit of a rebuilding period once this current generation ages out of the squad, but there is no denying their quality.

Overall I am hoping for a fun tournament with lots of goals and high drama. Tournaments such as these are global advertisements for the game, and it’s good for the sport when quality football is seen by hundreds of millions.

Champions League: Round of 16 Review

When play was suspended back in March, only half of the fixtures for the quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League had been decided. It was already decided that Red Bull Leipzig (GER) will be playing Atletico Madrid (SPA) and Atalanta (ITA) will be playing Paris St. Germain (FRA). Only the first leg in the top half of the bracket had been played though, which meant that the fixtures between Manchester City vs. Real Madrid, Lyon vs. Juventus, Chelsea vs. Bayern Munich, and Napoli vs. Barcelona still needed to be played. All quarterfinal matches will be played in one-off playoffs in Lisbon, Portugal in order to minimize travel and risk of COVID exposure for players, coaches, and staff. The sprint to the European Cup is on!

Manchester City (ENG) vs. Real Madrid (SPA) (Man City lead 2-1 on aggregate from first leg)

This was one of the more intriguing match-ups of the round for a variety of reasons. Both teams are capable of scoring goals almost at-will. City manager Pep Guardiola is Catalan through and through, and therefore dislikes Madrid with a passion. Meanwhile, Real have just come off yet another title-winning season in La Liga under the legendary Zinedine Zidane. The tie was finely poised at 2-1 as well, with City knowing that a draw or victory would mean they would move on. Guardiola was under a fair amount of pressure to deliver for City in this match, as he has been somewhat under-performing in Europe the past few seasons for both City and his former club Bayern Munich.

The match was electrifying from almost the get go, and it was surprisingly City who took the lead via England forward Raheem Sterling after mistakes at the back by the Madrid defense. That would be a theme of the night for Real, unfortunately. Karim Benzema did get an equalizer later on in the first half for the Madridistas, but they were ultimately undone at the back again by City forward Gabriel Jesus. Along with an inability to play the ball out from the back, Madrid forward Eden Hazard looked completely off the pace and possibly even unfit for play. Zidane also made some uncharacteristic errors with his substitutions, and City deservedly advanced 4-2 on aggregate.

Lyon (FRA) vs. Juventus (ITA) (Lyon lead 1-0 on aggregate)

I unfortunately did not get to watch this match due to watching Man City, but based on the highlights I saw I have to commend Lyon for standing up to the superstars of Juventus and doing enough to hold them off. It is difficult to prevent Juventus from scoring in any situation, and especially so at their home in Turin, Italy. Juventus have also just won their ninth consecutive title in Serie A, also known as the Scudetto.

Portugal forward and all-world player Cristiano Ronaldo scored twice in the match for Juventus, once from the penalty spot and the other an absolute screamer from about 26 yards out. Those two goals were not enough though. Dutch forward Memphis Depay converted from the penalty spot for Lyon in between those two goals, giving Lyon an absolutely crucial away goal. For those who don’t remember, the “away goals rule” is the tie breaker in case the score is level on aggregate after two games. Away goals are deemed to be more valuable under this rule, so the team that scores the most away goals is given the tie breaker.

Lyon won 1-0 in France back in March, so even though they lost 2-1 to Juventus they still advance 2-2 on aggregate because they scored in Italy and Juventus failed to score in France. This was a pretty big upset given that Juventus are absolutely loaded with talent throughout the team. Lyon have good players too of course, but most people had Juventus advancing as far as the final. To show you the level of calamity this is for Juve, less than 24 hours after their unceremonious exit from the tournament they sacked manager Maurizzio Sarri and have replaced him with former player and Italian legend Andrea Pirlo. All credit to Lyon though, they defended well in both legs and scored just enough to sneak by. Well done. Good defending can take a team quite far in a tournament such as this one.

Lyon will play Manchester City in Lisbon on August 15th in the quarterfinals.

Chelsea (ENG) vs. Bayern Munich (GER) (Bayern lead 3-0 on aggregate)

As indicated by the scoreline, this fixture was already feeling a little lopsided. Chelsea are good, don’t get me wrong, but Bayern are another level this season. They have the best player of this current season in Robert Lewandowski, accompanied by a team of world-beaters at almost every position. When I say Bayern are stacked, I mean they are STACKED. They edged out Borussia Dortmund to win the Bundesliga for the umpteenth time, and they look poised to make a deep run in this tournament.

Chelsea just couldn’t keep up with them today in Germany, and it wasn’t really fair to expect them to. You could argue this tie was over before a ball was even kicked, but the fact that Bayern won 4-1 today tells you just what kind of mood they are in. They could have kicked it back and forth among themselves and settled for a boring 0-0 draw, but they really went for it and Chelsea were put to sword. Lewandowksi was in sensational form again and was involved in all four goals for Bayern. If he is not scoring, he’s creating for others. Chelsea’s suspect defense let them down again today, but I think most Chelsea players and manager Frank Lampard will be happy with how this season has went for the most part. They were without budding American superstar Christian Pulisic today, and he was needed for Chelsea to have any chance at overturning the deficit. Bayern advance 7-1 on aggregate.

Ze Germans are now probably favorites to go and win this whole thing.

Barcelona (SPA) vs. Napoli (ITA) (tie level 1-1 on aggregate)

Saved the most entertaining game today for last. This tie was an intriguing one as there was potential for an upset here as well. Barcelona did have the advantage on away goals after the first leg in Naples, Italy but Napoli knew on the return leg in northern Spain that if they scored they could really put pressure on the Catalan giants and possibly sneak a victory like Lyon did the day before.

The match was played under absolutely sweltering conditions, and maybe that had something to do with why Barca were almost caught napping 90 seconds into the match when Belgian winger Dries Mertens struck the post for Napoli. Barca settled down a little bit after that shot across the bow and took the lead via French center back Clement Lenglet, who headed in from a corner. Barca took a 2-1 lead on aggregate, which interestingly only slightly added to their advantage. Had Napoli scored they would have been level both on the night and on aggregate thanks again to the away goals rule.

Barca knew they needed another one, and it was the man they so often turn to who went and got it for them: Lionel Messi. Not even going to bother describing this one. You have to see it to believe it (featuring some excellent commentary from Peter Drury).

He is a wizard. A genius. The best of all time. You can throw superlative after superlative at him and you still won’t be able to fully describe just how good this man is. Not only is he capable of doing this sort of thing, he does it routinely. It is true that he is getting older and on the tail end of his prime, but clearly he is still capable of going into God Mode and obliterating defenders’ hopes and dreams. You can know exactly what he’s going to do, but it won’t matter because sometimes he is unstoppable.

Barca thought they had a third seven minutes later when Messi converted from close range again after a cross into the box by Dutch midfielder Frankie de Jong, but after VAR took a look it was determined that Messi handled the ball when the cross arrived. It was 50/50 for me, but VAR overturned the goal. It didn’t really matter though, as just before halftime Barca were awarded a penalty by VAR, which Uruguayan striker and Donkey Face Luis Suarez converted with ease. At 3-0 on the night and 4-1 on aggregate you felt this tie was done and dusted.

There was a minor hiccup for Barca though when Napoli were awarded a penalty late in stoppage time of the first half, which was dispatched effectively by Italian striker Lorenzo Insigne. Barca still had a big lead, but if you were Napoli you felt slightly better being down only 2 goals on aggregate instead of 3.

The second half was a much more tepid affair though, and no further goals were scored. Barca simply kept possession and choked Napoli out like a boa constrictor. The tie ended 4-2 on aggregate and Barcelona advanced.

Hoping to have my colleague Jose do a write up previewing Barca’s next match. They play Bayern Munich in Lisbon on August 14th. Should be an excellent match up!

Other QFs

Atalanta takes on PSG in Lisbon on August 12.

Atletico Madrid plays Red Bull Leipzig on August 13.